Two devastating plagues, HIV/AIDS and poverty, kill millions and spread misery among the living in Sub-Saharan Africa and, to an as yet lesser extent, other developing areas of the world. In response to HIV/AIDS, billions of dollars per year are spent in Africa by donors, local governments, and affected individuals. With few exceptions, in-country goods and services are provided by governments and often-bureaucratic NGOs. Outside of a few firms conducting traditional mitigation and treatment programs for their workforces, the private sector is almost entirely absent. If billions of dollars per year over a lengthy period of time were going into Africa as well as being spent by those on the Continent for anything other than combating a sexually transmitted disease, all parties would view it as an opportunity for private sector development and economic enhancement. The fact that it is for a sexually transmitted disease in no way diminishes that potential. As important as is this development opportunity, the primary rationale for promoting more private sector involvement is the potential for developing more cost-effective means for delivering traditional HIV/AIDS programs and creating innovative, market sensitive approaches to combat the disease. To highlight the potential for different types of goods and services, three examples are presented. A model is presented for operationalizing private sector- and development-friendly approaches to HIV/AIDS which take into account the necessity for government and donor involvement and oversight. It is argued that the nature of goods and services required for HIV/AIDS programs, as well as the geographic distribution of needs for the goods and services are conducive to development of local, private sector firms. Another factor favoring business development is that under the most optimistic scenario, the battle against and funding to combat HIV/AIDS will last for decades. From the perspectives of those charged with promoting development, it is argued that in societies where large numbers of individuals are at risk, reducing those risks (as well as lengthening and improving lives of those infected) ranks among the best means for preserving and enhancing human welfare, of generating value. That describes a business opportunity.

Almost invariably, economists have used HIV prevalence rates in models intended to estimate the impact of HIV/AIDS on the economic performance of nations. However, an individual may be HIV positive for lengthy periods with little or no physical impairment. Particularly in environments where little or no medical care is provided before the onset of severe illness, estimates of sickness rates, referred to as AIDS prevalence rates, should be used. In this regard, it should be noted that AIDS prevalence will not be a constant fraction of HIV prevalence. In countries where HIV prevalence rates are climbing (falling), AIDS prevalence will be a smaller (larger) fraction of HIV prevalence. Accounting for this phenomenon is crucial in Sub-Saharan Africa where some countries have experienced prolonged, sometimes dramatic, trends in HIV prevalence. In this paper a model to estimate the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is developed and tested. It is demonstrated that using AIDS prevalence estimates is superior to using HIV prevalence.