Wars and Conflicts in Africa

Advantages and Limits of Protracted Low-Intensity Civil War: The Case of Northern Uganda

MATTHEW KUSTENBAUDER (Matthew.Kustenbauder@yale.edu)

Yale University
New Haven, USA

Abstract: This paper argues that a primary reason for protracted, low-intensity civil war in Uganda during the last two decades is that the NRM government of Yoweri Museveni and rebel insurgent movements alike have benefited from such a situation. While there have been over twenty known insurgencies in Uganda since Museveni came to power in 1986, this paper focuses on the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in northern Uganda, arguing that Museveni’s government gained political dividends while the LRA gained personal benefits so long as the conflict continued. A shift in the geopolitical landscape, coupled with the diminishing returns of a long-duration, low-level conflict, may explain why both sides have recently renewed and intensified their efforts to negotiate a lasting peace. The paper concludes by identifying two elements that will be critical in order for a negotiated peace to hold.

October 2007 (word count: 5,894)

Paper prepared for the conference “Wars and Conflicts in Africa” at the University of Texas at Austin, USA.

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