Currently, some 80%or so of jobs are in the services. Services included government, wholesale, retail, medicine, education, finance, insurance, real estate, professional services like law, and utilities. Most new jobs are created in the services. Currently, computer and communications advances are creating new services, such as information services, at a rapid rate. In the services, job creation from the expansion of new services is much greater than job displacement from automation. therefore the issue of rising real income depends on how fast the services are automated.
a. Short Run: Services have been using increasing amounts of capital in the form of computers, software and communications equipment for some time. The automation of the services, like the automation of manufacturing, will proceed slowly though the continual reorganization of work to efficiently use increasing combinations of software residing in computer, communications and other equipment. Until there is a large expansion in the communication system, there will not be a drastic change in service employment. Employment will increase in the transition because of the growth of new services and the fact that firms will have to maintain dual electronic and paper systems. In the near future, there should be an increase in employment in the services. One area which employment could potentially expand is personal services, but I doubt if people will want to become servants and anyway, in time a home robot will become the perfect obsequious servant.
b. Long Run: The major impact of the electronics technology on the services will not occur until the paperwork process is replaced by electronics and the communication channel capacity expands markedly. Once this occurs in 20-30 years, workers, such as administrative assistants, who perform routine paperwork functions, such as filing and communicating paperwork, will be rapidly displaced. Workers in retail and wholesale trade will gradually decrease as markets shift to the social nervous system. Also, with the automation of information flows in government the number of government workers will gradually decrease.